Saturday, May 24, 2008

The Quest for the Cup: HoG's Finals Preview

It's that time of year again. The excitement, agony, anxiety and pride of fighting through an 82-game season and three best-of-seven playoff series are over. Seems like yesterday guys were reporting to camp for pre-season workouts. Now, late in May, the quest for the Cup has reached its acme. Two teams, one shot at the most coveted trophy in professional sports. Like the clip in yesterday's post says, "It weighs 35 pounds, except when you lift it." A look at Michel Therrien's Pittsburgh Penguins and Mike Babcock's Detroit Red Wings, after the jump.

This no doubt is the most difficult prediction post I've written to date. I'm going to examine some of the tangibles from both of these squads, but it, as players frequently say, will all boil down to who gets out there and plays better hockey four out of seven times. Sounds silly, I know. But this is where the overdrive kicks in, where 100% hustle for every loose puck is demanded of every guy on the ice for every second he's out there. This is where, if need be, a defenseman errs on the side of caution, and shows restraint against those tempting opportunities to pinch in along the halfwall. Those defenders must stay at home, never forget the weak side, and deliver crisp outlet passes on every occasion, regardless of the hit that's coming.

This is where wings and centers must continue to cycle in the offensive zone. They must remember to use their points often, and stay moving down low afterwards. This is where using all the ice, especially to gain the neutral zone, will be pivotal. And goalies? Goalies must simply be goalies, and be awarded clear lanes of vision in all instances possible.

This Finals epitomizes experience versus youth. Neither team gets the edge on those identifiers alone. It will be a matter of who better uses their strengths to their advantage when it comes to tilting this series.

The Prince-of-Wales-Trophy-holding Penguins have a sleuth in Therrien as their bench boss. He's emerged from a moderate playing career, and an only mildly-impressive-at-best coaching past to assemble one of the best single-season NHL records in history with last year's 105-point campaign in Pittsburgh. His club, the talk of the league, was filled with potential, a chance to become the next Edmonton Oilers of the 80s and win multiple championships. They bowed out early in the first round, and have achieved the crucial: bottling their potential and exhibiting a marked improvement upon last year's impressive season.

The Penguins are loaded with talents seldom-seen in the league. They have the uber-young, coveted heir to the Gretzky throne in Sidney Crosby. He dons the "C," and leads veterans like Petr Sykora, Marian Hossa, Sergei Gonchar, and Pascal Dupuis. He also leads peers in Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal. Throw in the oft-improving netminding of Marc Andre-Fleury and x-factors like (House of) Georges Laraque and Gary Roberts. A guy can't find enough to say about Gary Roberts. In his own way, he's the journeyed version of clutch other sports see in the likes of Derek Jeter, Kobe Bryant, or Tom Brady. If Therrien's Penguins want this Cup, it's theirs for the taking.

Standing in their way, however, are the icons of professional hockey from around the world. Seldom does Detroit put together a less-than-excellent club, but this just might be the best they've skated in a long time. Better, perhaps than the days of the Federov/Yzerman-centered clubs that threw teams around for many years. This Red Wings team, if it can harness all its potential, has the ability to throw around all the talent and leadership in the seemingly unstoppable Pittsburgh Penguins.

Detroit can stop them, but they've faltered in two of their three previous rounds, nearly letting Nashville back in the Quarters, and the Stars in the Conference Finals. Tonight they square off against a Pittburgh club that becomes the 11th squad to reach the Finals with two or fewer losses since 1980. Hockeytown's mix of Czechs, Slovaks, Swedes, Fins, Canadians, and -- yes, even Americans could destroy the Penguins if they choose to take this team seriously.

Aside from the fact that Detroit has Chris Osgood (backed by Dominik Hasek, no less) in net, they're so stacked with champions, it's sickening. Darren McCarty, Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kirk Maltby, Tomas Holmstrom, Kris Draper, Pavel Datsyuk, and of course Chris Chelios are the loaded anchors of veteran poise that can command this club's march to victory. Add the youth and flair of Johann Franzen, Valtteri Fillpula, and Henrik Zetterberg, and that's one frightening lineup. Throw in the wit and grit of Mike Babcock, and, from this vantage point, the edge seems in Detroit's favor.

So much so, that I don't think the march of the Penguins down championship road starts here. Not this year. This Goliath is a few notches too deep to be toppled by the spryness of the Davidesque Pittsburgh. Gary Roberts turned 42 yesterday. He's been a staple everywhere he's played. The 46-year-old Chelios knows a thing or two about being a staple. He hoists one more Cup before hanging up the skates.

Having improved to an overall post-season prediction record of 52-32, I'm feeling pretty confident. This championship series could go seven games, all of which include overtime. But it won't. A rejuvenated passion has come alive in the Steel City. Mario's manning the team, Sid the Kid is living up to expectations, and the Igloo will finally be replaced. This could be the end to the 16-year Cup drought in Pittsburgh. But the stakes are too high in Hockeytown. It's been six years since Detroit won a Cup, and they've only won three in the last ten years. Wings in six.

9 comments:

Unknown said...

Ah yes,

Once again another prognosticator picks agains the Pens. You gotta love it. Of course you go with Detroit, right. Experience over youth always.

Well, we could actually break down the mathcups rather than just bantering on about who's done what in the past.

Both teams will face their toughest opponent in the playoffs thus far today. Detroit, however, will face the toughtest DEFENSE they've played. They too, will faces their most PHYSICAL opponent in the Pens as well. Yet again, a columnist dismisses the Pens oft-ingored physical presence and tough defense.

Detroit will score their goals but will have to gamble in the process. The Pens will captalize on a weary Detroit squad that just can't match their depth, and score goals on turnovers as Detroit pushes hard.

As usual, it will come down to goaltending. Will Fleury's number stay consistent.

They'll dip a bit, but not enough for Detroit.

Pens in 6.

Nice try, Banky,

TLR

blairjjohnson said...

Hmm. Four-nothing. I didn't see any signs of weariness or the Pens playing defense or being physical. I did see an all-out domination for three straight periods. Too bad you wasted all that energy by capitalizing those words.

Unknown said...

I see you take the easy road with you response ... post-game.

I think the Jays will beat the Royals and Hochevar 6-0.

It's a six game series, ol' man and you can only hope to win one of the first two on the road. This is generally the objective in the 7-game series format.

It didn't look good for the Pens, but your suggestion of domination makes me think you were spendin' some QT with the Misses and not actually watchin' the game. It was pretty back and forth, but the Pens had a tough time gettin' chances and Osgood wan on fire. Fleury was little shakey, but not awful. That, however, is the Pens fans' biggest concern.

They'll need to find some space in order to steal game 2. This is a real test, though, as it's their first time to be behind in a serires. The longer the series goes, the better off the Pens are. If we don't pull it off, I guess we'll just have to settle for 3 of the next 4 Cups.

Cheers,

TLR

P.S. I'll be waiting to hear from you sometime Tuesday morning.

blairjjohnson said...

Now, now. No easy road here. I didn't have the heart to bludgeon you in the pre-game. I just call 'em like I see 'em, Broseph. The Wings were the best team in the league this year, and if it weren't for the Pens, they'd be the best in the playoffs thus far.

Facts are facts. Pittsburgh couldn't gain the zone last night. Period. You'll never beat a deeper team if you can't move in and set up. Three of the next four Cups might be a worthwhile wager. I just don't see them matching wits with Detroit this go 'round.

Unknown said...

Sir, you weren't watching the same game I was.

Detroit didn't "gain the zone" either. Pittsburgh held the zone for about 2 minutes directly after going down 1-0 and that was a long run for either team. The score was NOT indicative of the game.
Dominations is clearly the wrong word. Detroit is favored to win and were playing at home. Neither team held the puck well and the goalies looked good. It was a back and forth affair, and Detroit's D just wouldn't give Malkin or Crosby any room. If they don't have space, they're in trouble. Keep in mind, Detroit didn't get much room either but happened to capitalize on some chances. The Pens were a bounce away from a 1-1 game, man. That just ain't domination ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT. I gotta believe you didn't miss that.

Cheers,

TLR

blairjjohnson said...

Unfortunately for your argument, a bounce away from a 1-1 game and losing 4-0 are worlds apart, good friend. Worlds.

Unknown said...

Hillary is that you? What have you done with Banky? Release him now, unharmed, or witness first-hand the long reach of the TLR.

This committed effort to deny your obvious overplay with "domination" breeds great concern in HOG nation. You are our NHL guru. You watch the games and follow the league. Any fan, outside of Detroit, recognizes that last night's game was NOT dominated by either side. Rather, it lacked any sort of consistency, which made for some fun hockey. They will also recognize that the Pens are in big trouble, but certainly not out of it.

I ask you sir, what game were you watching last night? I expect that you were flipping back between some sort of cooking show or MTV reality debacle. Come forward, kind sir. Come forward. The truth will set you free.

This game was more about Pens mistakes then Red Wing domination. They were beat by the better team, but primarily because of a few mistakes (missed changes, and poorly cleared pucks). Exectution, execution, execution ... domination? I don't think so.

Otherwise, Hillary, let my Banky GO!

Beware,

TLR

blairjjohnson said...

You say this game was about Pens' mistakes instead of Wings' domination, which, if it's true -- and I'm not arguing that it's not -- goes right back to the experience-versus-youth that you so quickly disposed of at the beginning of these comments.

Dissect it however you will, Science Boy. A win's a win. And a four-nothing win is a dominating win. The final score might not reflect the game in its entirety, but putting pucks in the net his how you get closer to the Lord.

Unknown said...

And I thought you were a hockey fan ... alas, just another Detroit homer.

I woulda given you 2 out of 3 periods, but all three is just inaccurate. You could not watch the first period and go on to make the bold and grossly inaccurate claim you did. I forgive you as you must stick with your prognosis.

The Pens played their worst hockey yet, and Detroit played their finest. Experience and youth, perhaps. That's what EVERY ONE IN THE MEDIA HAS BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS. Home ice doesn't hurt. That may well be the way it goes for the series, but I doubt it.

Domination? Shit man, were it the Blues in the series I think you'd be more willing to see my side.

Cheers,

TLR