Sunday, September 23, 2007

Pickin & Grinnin': Week Three

I try not to look for too many cute strategeries or themes in my gambling. I tend to let my prodigious gut lead me to the profits. And sometimes you just get yourself a feeling and you need to go with it.

I've had such a feeling about the Dallas Cowboys this season. Even though I thought their defense would be more formidable, they've impressed me in two wins. Tonight they visit the Bears, who have yet to get it going against two AFC teams. Take the points. The Pick: Cowboys +3

My feeling about the Falcons is less pronounced, but I still think that gambling value exists in Atlanta. Look, they don't have to win games. But if everyone thinks you're the worst team in the league, and you're actually the fifth- or sixth-worst team in the league, you're going to get lopsided point spreads until the betting public catches on. Ride Joey and the Birds for one more week, at home against Carolina. The Pick: Falcons +4 1/2

I generally don't like to lay my action until Sunday morning, so as not to get caught with my pants down on last-minute news (like Kelly Holcomb possibly starting at Arrowhead--yuck). But occasionally that move backfires when smart money moves a bad line. The Lions getting six against what could be a shitty Eagles club was juicy, at 4 1/2 I pass. Pittsburgh laying 9 1/2 against the Niners is doable, but moving that bad boy to 10 1/2 scares me away (but put the Steelers in a teaser). So let's find a nice trend here...

Like the trend that the Chargers are playing like crap. Sure, they'll eventually emerge from this funk, and it may well happen today at Lambeau. But giving an inspired Packers squad six points at home is too good to pass up. The Pick: Packers +6

I suppose we need a favorite in here somewhere, so let's head out to Landover, Maryland and the surprising Redskins. They're at home, and they're playing the Giants. I think I've said enough. The Pick: Redskins -4

I won't bet for or against the Broncos, but until they show some offensive consistency you can't let good spreads like this go. They're favored by four against a decent, hard-hitting team in Jacksonville. Denver is always (always!) one of the most overrated teams in Vegas, and likewise are usually terrible against the spread (this year 0-2 ATS, 2-0 for reals). So I merely suggest taking the Jags today.

Likewise, it warms my heart to see Kansas City setting up shop at the bottom of the NFL. It'll be a great day out here in Colorado if they drop their home opener today. How long will it take the Arrowhead faithful to boo the Herman/Huard duo? If the going gets ugly today, will Brodie Croyle see a little action? I'm giddy. But you simply can't put hard-earned money on the Tavaris Jackson/Brooks Bollinger/Holcomb potpourri surprise at the Home...Of The...Chafes. Leave it alone, and go Vikings.

See, that's smart wagering. Instead of going with our hearts and betting against a hated rival, we're saving that hard-earned cash for a better value. And the bet I'm suggesting is...going against another hated rival. Part of me thinks that Indianapolis will wake up and mop the floor with the Andre Johnson-less Texans. But my gut has been telling me all year that Houston is underrated, and just like we're giving Atlanta one more week of faith, stick with Coach Kubiak. The Pick: Texans +7

Last week P&G was 3-2, and the season record stands at 7-4.


Cecil said...

Gamblers update: that Green Bay pick ain't lookin' too shabby at the moment. Packers leading 10-7 with 4:30ish to go in the half.

How 'bout them Vikings? Leading the hapless Chefs 10-0. But oops, Jared "Ethan" Allen just recovered an Adrian Peterson fumble. Could there be life in KC? My guess is no.

blairjjohnson said...

And, as usual, when you guess on the Chiefs, your guess is wrong. Keep it up, bro-ham.