Sleeping With The Enemy: Broncos @ Bears

Your Denver Broncos travel to not-really-all-that-historic Soldier Field (it's a brand-new ballpark with some old columns out front) today for an interconference showdown. After making the Super Bowl last year the Bears are underachieving at 4-6, similar to the Broncos' 5-5 struggles. Our Chicago representative is The Catfish, who you may remember as the hopelessly optimistic Cubs fan from this summer.

And after the jump, I'll throw in a few picks to boot.

Old No. 7: So Sexy Rexy is back in charge. I didn't watch a whole lot of the game last week, but what I did see made him look lousy. What's up?

Catfish: Rex didn't throw an interception, he did fumble once, but threw for over 250 yards and I thought looked pretty good. It was nice to see some zip on a pass after watching Griese try to throw to a wideout on the sideline. Painful! Look, Grossman is capable of starting for 20 NFL teams. The Chicago media and talk radio scene have made him the black sheep of a flock not worthy of a shepherd's time. I would love to see Grossman finish strong and get a two year extension.

Old No. 7: Why is this team not nearly as dominant as it has been the last couple years?

Catfish: Simple, what team in the last 10 years following a Super Bowl loss has been competitive? NONE! Look at 2 years removed from the Super Bowl how many teams make the playoffs and compete for a Super Bowl and my Bears look a lot better. Finally, injuries to key players on defense: Mike Brown, Nathan Vasher, Tommie Harris, Peanut Tillman, Dusty Dvorckek, etc. Injuries rule in the NFL!

Old No. 7: Is Cedric Benson just a giant vagina, or is there still hope for him yet? Do you wish you could have that draft pick back, or at least have held on to Thomas Jones?

Catfish: Not a giant Vagina, but a swampy one. He has not participated in the Bears’ off season strength programs and it shows. He is chubby and slow and shows little ability to shake a defender’s tackle. For a big, physical runner, that’s not a good sign. I love Thomas Jones, and had Thanksgiving with his family!

Old No. 7: Your dad is a big Packers fan, and we've all gotten together to watch the Super Bowl the last couple years. Are you dreading a situation where Green Bay makes the big game this season? Is that when the automatic weapons come out?

Catfish: I used profanity towards my dad last year for the first time, when he visited my home the Super Bowl. You were there! If Green Bay makes the game, I have decided to respect my father by leaving the country! Perhaps IRAQ!

Old No. 7: OK, I need a quick prediction. What will the final score be, and what about the Broncos worries you for this game? What do the Bears have to do to win?

Catfish: BEARS 23 BRONCOS 16 Its all about turnovers. Grossman plays mistake free, while Cutler cracks under a real big city like Chicago. Look, the Bears aren't good this year, but if the Lions were in your division they would be in first. Hester takes one punt from your juiced up punter to the house. I have two games of interest left this season, Broncos and Packers at home, Win those and I will call this season a wash. I really do love the Bears with all my heart. And always will. Go BEARS! Good luck!

The Picks

I'm trying a new technique this weekend, looking for favorites that have no business being favorites and taking the dogs--no matter how awful they are.

Broncos +1 @ Chicago
Raiders +3 1/2 @KC
Panthers +3 1/2 v. New Orleans
Ravens +9 @ San Diego
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Pickin' & Grinnin': It Goes To Eleven

I think I've finally cleansed the foul KansasCityness from all of my bodily orifices and I'm ready for some more NFL football. Only those beloved Broncos of mine play on Monday Night. And, I'm totally kidding. Kansas City's fine, and I loathe these Broncos. Or maybe I sort of love/hate both. Let's just make some picks, shall we?

The streak of 4-1 weeks has come to a close, kids. These things can't last forever. Now I'm not blaming Cecil for this debacle, but I did break from my normal routine of solo pickery/hand-sex for a little collaboration (on the picks, not the hand-sex) in the City of Kansas. And for signing off on those awful selections, Cecil gets a big raspberry. After a 2-3 we stand at 28-23. But this week is going to rock out with a cock out.

Remember back when we were riding the Falcons every week, on account of their undeservedly subhuman status in the eyes of Vegas? Well, don't look now, but the Dirty Birds are showing a little bit of filth lately. Joey is even acting all uppity at the prospects of being replaced by Byron Leftwich. Now that's the fire you've never displayed, Joey. Atta boy. Atlanta is hosting the Bucs this week and getting points. Now if Tampa was any good you might run and hide, but they're not. The Pick: Falcons +3 1/2

The two big spreads of the week are Indy and New England, as usual. And if you're only going to take one, go with the Colts. Not because they're better, but their opponent is much worse. Buffalo is actually playing well these days, while KC begins the Brodie Bangs Era in the RCA Dome versus an angry, beat-up team. I see many, many touchdowns being scored by the home blue. The Pick: Colts -16

Jags by 3 at home against the Chargers. Who's better? I think it's Jacksonville, but I also thought that Andrew Ridgely was the superior talent in Wham! The Pick: Jaguars -3

Sexy Rexy is back and loaded with six weeks worth of backed-up discharge. I predict the standard four-touchdown, three-interception explosion onto the chin and lips of Seattle. The Pick: Bears +6

And finally we matriculate to Invesco for the Tony Kornheiser weekly debacle. Tennessee limps in looking lost and pitiful, while Denver produced a dominant road win last week. I still think that the ex-Oilers are the stronger team, and I have lost more money betting against Vince Young than I care to recount. The Pick: Titans +2
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Pickin' & Grinnin': Week 10

Coming at you live from lovely Kansas City (Editor's Note: Not actually lovely), this is Pickin' & Grinnin'. We're actually on quite a roll here, with three consecutive 4-1 weeks bringing our season record to a robust 26-20.

I suppose that The Tradition dictates we make a call on the Broncos-Chiefs game, and here we have a couple concurrent themes going. We've capitalized on the lousy Broncos, who are 1-7 against the spread this year. But as profitable as it's been to take Denver's opponent this year, it seems downright un-American to bet on the Chiefs in this rivalry. So here it is: if you're a man, and you're 40, put your money on the Broncos and take the points. If you like to win money, go with the Chefs. The Pick: Broncos +3

I must have missed something, because the spreads I saw showed Buffalo over Miami favored by a mere four points. That's a joke, right? Is Jim Kelly starting for the Bills? Even if he was, that's about as easy a cover as I can remember. The Pick: Bills -4

It's a two-team league, and Indianapolis is one of those teams. San Diego is not, so this line is way too close for my taste. The Pick: Colts -4 1/2

Detroit takes their traveling carnival of Jesus and football to Glendale, Arizona for a game with the Cards. It's a pick 'em, which is gambling parlance for, well, pick 'em. Select a winner, you fence-straddling fuck. Okay, I go with cauldron of intelligence stirred by Matt Millen and Mike Martz. The Pick: Lions

And, finally, a big dog just for fun. Go with Derek "Horse Balls" Anderson and Cleveland getting double digits in Pittsburgh. The Pick: Browns +10
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Pickin' & Grinnin': Week Eight, I Think

This'll be a short dispatch from the road, as I'm getting ready to hop in a car and spend an NFL Sunday driving across Colorado. It's the price you have to pay to witness history, I guess. I just hope a game is on the radio.

This week there are quite a few lines I like, as opposed to the colossal piles of shit we've been subjected to over the past month. But just because I like a spread doesn't mean I'm exposing it to the hard-earned Benjamin Cheese. For that, my friend, I have to fall in love.

By the way, the move to the Cheese was a roaring success last week. We went 4-1, with the only blemish the Steelers loss that saved the Broncos' season. Feel free to check the archives to compile a season aggregate, because I'm not going to. There's continental breakfast to be had, jackass. The picks...

No team is harder to figure out on a week-to-week basis than the Panthers. But this week they host the Colts, who are easy to comprehend. They'll win, and they'll cover the seven and a half. The Pick: Colts -7 1/2

Pittsburgh played slightly beneath their capabilities at Invesco last week and they'll bounce back against the awful Bengals. This line makes me think I've missed some big news, like Big Ben and Coach Epps got arrested in an undercover child sodomy sting. One can only dream. The Pick: Steelers -4 1/2

Dog time: I don't care if Jay Alves is playing quarterback for the Jags (obscure Rockies ticket fiasco reference), they're not losing to Tampa today. Take the points, take the money line (+170), take the rent money and take that shit to the bank. The Pick: Jaguars +4

I'm sure everyone has heard this amazing, amazing bit o' trivia. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, on a collision course for an epic war of undefeated football morality next Sunday, have both defeated 30 NFL teams. They both face off today against the one franchise other than their own that they've never bested: Peyton gets the Panthers while Brady gets the Skins. Anyway, enough with the Chris Berman jabber-jabber. I know that the Patriots have covered even the most ludicrous spreads this season. And I know they're the most focused team in the history of this game we call football. But I've got a feeling, a feeling originating deep within my scrotum, that Washington will give them a game today. Not win, but scare these Masshole death merchants. The Pick: Redskins +16 1/2

And finally we have the Monday Nighter from Denver. It's looking more and more like this game will run minus crosstown baseball competition, but nonetheless it's still battle of two overrated teams with big issues. I will halfheartedly endorse the visitors from Green Bay, on the premise that...who am I kidding I just love betting against this particular Shanahan team. And if they should once again defy my expectations and win this game, I will once again weep with the emotion of a first time father, unless I'm watching the World Series instead. The Pick: Packers +3
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Pickin' & Grinnin': Week Something

Bad times were had at the HoGQuarters this week, when The Wife perused the old bank statement. She's all like "Why are we so broke?" only she used a whole lot more curse words, and I tried to explain why the Falcons should cover every week, they just don't. Fucking Joey Harrington...when will I ever learn that your fine piano skills do not translate to the brutish symphony that is the NFL?

So I've now been cut off from most sources of gambling funding, but I was able to keep the contents of my Super Secret Reserve Piggy Bank Of Benjamin Cheese all to myself. How, you ask? Because it's Super Secret, you God damned idiot. I don't tell The Wife about it. I only reveal it to you, Perfect Internet Stranger, because I know you won't tell her. We're cool, right?

Now the Super Secret Reserve is prodigious, but I can't be foolish with this cash. It's how I buy really important things that don't pass the Bank Statement Test. Like boxes of cigars. And mescal. And Pay-Per-View showings of Into The Blue ("Honey, you have no idea how good an actor Paul Walker is. Jessica Alba's in that? You don't say.").

Anyway, in order to protect and grow the S.S.R.P.B. o' B.C., I've devised a strategery that will turn the 1-4 of the last few weeks into solid gold five and oh, bitches. Follow along, dear readers, and join me in profit...

I've always had a minor wagering tendency to bet against my favorite team. It's a perfect way to hedge, so long as you're not actively rooting against your boys. If your team gets beat, at least you make a little cash. But I always felt guilty afterward. Actually, I didn't.

So why not take that little urge and blow it up? Not only does it completely remove your natural bias to bet on teams you like, it insulates you from the pain and suffering of dealing with yet another painful (insert your crappy team here) loss. Let's bet big on the teams we hate!

First off, I hate the Steelers. I've met a lot of people from Pittsburgh, and most of them have to inform any neighbors that have small children when they move into a new place. Not really, but I've never been able to get over that AFC Championship loss in Denver a couple years ago. Man I hate the Steelers.

Luckily for the Terrible-Towel-waving assholes descending upon Invesco this weekend, Broncos' home losses have become about as common as public views of Jeff Reed's junk. Denver has dropped five of the last seven on the shoulder of I-25, and those two wins came courtesy of a whiffed Bengals extra point (aka "The Christmas Miracle") and a whiffed Raider field goal (aka "The Clockblock Timeout Shanahanigan"). Bet the Steelers. Bet 'em big. They're gonna destroy my Broncos. And if, by some weird twist of magic, Denver wins, I will cry tears of joy while I hock my washing machine. The Pick: Steelers -3 1/2

The Chiefs make the trek to Oakland this week, and this is a tough one. Because, you know, both these teams make me want to kick a cat. But the Raiders are a feeble old shell (Editor's Note: That was a totally inadvertent pun.) of their former greatness. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have tickled the scrotum of respectability for quite some time now. So I hate them more. It is that hatred for Kansas City and its residents that provides much of the fuel in this here House. So what do we do with the hated Chefs? Great Googly Moogly, we bet on the bastards. And if they lose, well, that's really awesome. The Pick: Chiefs +2 1/2

In other, related news, if someone asked me to name the three teams that lick the most sweaty balls, I would have to think about it a long time. But after that span, I would realize that the words Colts-Patriots-Chargers had instinctively jumped out of my mouth immediately. And since the Chargers don't play this week, hey, Cowboys it is.

Until someone slows 'em down, keep going with Brady and the Belicheats. The Pick: Patriots -16 1/2

I don't buy the Jags as an elite team. Sorry. The Pick: Colts -3

The NFC stinks, but if you think about it, the NFC really sucks. The Pick: Cowboys -9 1/2

What's fun about this strategy is you can tailor it to your own personal tastes. If you hate the Broncos, for instance, feel free to bet on them. You'll lose, but it will be a loss filled with smug satisfaction. And who can place a price on that?

On the season we're 14-17.
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Pickin' & Grinnin': Week Four

Check this place out. The House of...Georges? That's a funny name. Don't know what it means, but it's pretty comfortable. I think I'll stick around for a minute or two, take off my sneakers, and make a few wagers. Ya mind?

Everyone's making a big fuss over the number of home dogs this week, and it is fairly extraordinary. I will go ahead and pick none of them, just to be a contrarian. Last week we went 3-2 again in this space, running the season to date total to a respectable yet hardly dominant 10-6.

The biggest pickle we face is that our two underrated gambling sweethearts, the Texans and the Falcons, face off against one another. In this case Atlanta gets dissed (as a four-point home dog) while Houston earns the proper amount of respect. It may be time to hop off that train.

Dallas is getting a lot of love following their big win in Chicago, and they're massive 14-point faves. What's underestimated here is the level of awful that St. Louis is achieving. It's staggering. The Pick: Cowboys -14

Elsewhere in bad Missouri football, the Chiefs travel to San Diego, who's yet to get it going. Let's do the math: Team that can't score faces good defense. Team with the biggest home field advantage in football hits the road. Angry steroid-fueled men itching to dance like young girls. Add it all up, and even Norv can't fuck this one up. The Pick: Chargers -11 1/2

On Monday Night, New England takes its freak show of destruction to Cincinnati. This line has moved quite a piece and now sits at 7 1/2, but fuck it. The Pick: Patriots -7 1/2

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that Arizona was going to upset Pittsburgh this week I'd bet it all on the Steelers and be rich. Listen, I buy the logic that Russ Grimm and The Whizz know a lot about their old employers. I understand the motivation present in wanting to beat the team that passed you over. But I don't care how many tendencies you uncover, who in the hell is going to execute the game plan? This is still the Cardinals, a rickety NFC club, playing what looks like an elite AFC unit. Tendencies my ass. The Pick: Steelers -7

Four picks, four huge favorites. This is not the insight that loyal readers of the HoG pay zero dollars for. We want our underdogs, asshole! Give us an upset we can take to the bank! Fine. Bet the Broncos. I know they can't stop the run, and I know Peyton typically shreds them for a quarter mile of passing yards per game. I know taking a young QB like Cutler in a dome, on the road, against a fast opportunistic defense like Indy's is virtual suicide. I also know that Indiana is one of the few states in which Travis Henry has not procreated, so he may be up late tonight and sleepy and sore tomorrow. But fuck it. That's way too many points, and I've got a feeling the Shanahan's club shows up for this game. They'll lose by nine, ten tops. The Pick: Broncos + 10 1/2
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Pickin & Grinnin': Week Three

I try not to look for too many cute strategeries or themes in my gambling. I tend to let my prodigious gut lead me to the profits. And sometimes you just get yourself a feeling and you need to go with it.

I've had such a feeling about the Dallas Cowboys this season. Even though I thought their defense would be more formidable, they've impressed me in two wins. Tonight they visit the Bears, who have yet to get it going against two AFC teams. Take the points. The Pick: Cowboys +3

My feeling about the Falcons is less pronounced, but I still think that gambling value exists in Atlanta. Look, they don't have to win games. But if everyone thinks you're the worst team in the league, and you're actually the fifth- or sixth-worst team in the league, you're going to get lopsided point spreads until the betting public catches on. Ride Joey and the Birds for one more week, at home against Carolina. The Pick: Falcons +4 1/2

I generally don't like to lay my action until Sunday morning, so as not to get caught with my pants down on last-minute news (like Kelly Holcomb possibly starting at Arrowhead--yuck). But occasionally that move backfires when smart money moves a bad line. The Lions getting six against what could be a shitty Eagles club was juicy, at 4 1/2 I pass. Pittsburgh laying 9 1/2 against the Niners is doable, but moving that bad boy to 10 1/2 scares me away (but put the Steelers in a teaser). So let's find a nice trend here...

Like the trend that the Chargers are playing like crap. Sure, they'll eventually emerge from this funk, and it may well happen today at Lambeau. But giving an inspired Packers squad six points at home is too good to pass up. The Pick: Packers +6

I suppose we need a favorite in here somewhere, so let's head out to Landover, Maryland and the surprising Redskins. They're at home, and they're playing the Giants. I think I've said enough. The Pick: Redskins -4

I won't bet for or against the Broncos, but until they show some offensive consistency you can't let good spreads like this go. They're favored by four against a decent, hard-hitting team in Jacksonville. Denver is always (always!) one of the most overrated teams in Vegas, and likewise are usually terrible against the spread (this year 0-2 ATS, 2-0 for reals). So I merely suggest taking the Jags today.

Likewise, it warms my heart to see Kansas City setting up shop at the bottom of the NFL. It'll be a great day out here in Colorado if they drop their home opener today. How long will it take the Arrowhead faithful to boo the Herman/Huard duo? If the going gets ugly today, will Brodie Croyle see a little action? I'm giddy. But you simply can't put hard-earned money on the Tavaris Jackson/Brooks Bollinger/Holcomb potpourri surprise at the Home...Of The...Chafes. Leave it alone, and go Vikings.

See, that's smart wagering. Instead of going with our hearts and betting against a hated rival, we're saving that hard-earned cash for a better value. And the bet I'm suggesting is...going against another hated rival. Part of me thinks that Indianapolis will wake up and mop the floor with the Andre Johnson-less Texans. But my gut has been telling me all year that Houston is underrated, and just like we're giving Atlanta one more week of faith, stick with Coach Kubiak. The Pick: Texans +7

Last week P&G was 3-2, and the season record stands at 7-4.
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Pickin' And Grinnin': Week Two

Week One was pretty good to us. 4-2 for the official picks, and Arvada Schwag snuck in with a little 3-0, good times. With all that spare cash we have laying around the HoG offices, we're ready to head back to our theoretical bookie for some easy pickins.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of those teams I just have a feeling about. I think they'll be a lot better than the common wisdom dictates, and until that's proven wrong I say take the points. The Pick: Atlanta (+10) @ Jacksonville.

This time of year, it always seems that Vegas is too high on the Cardinals. Until it really is time to crown their ass, go with the far superior team. The Pick: Seattle (-4) @ Arizona.

When I talked to The Catfish about the Bears/Chiefs game, he asked me if he had anything to be worried about. I told him that unless Sexy Rexy turns the ball over in his own territory, it will be impossible for the Chefs to score at Soldier. The Pick: Chicago (-13) v. KC.

I think that Dallas is going to be a legitimately good team. I think that Miami is not. Until further notice, take the good team against the lousy one and lay the points. The Pick: Dallas (-4 1/2) @ Miami.

Finally, we have the Big Game Of The Week. If you need a little action on this sucker, I say go with the Embattled Home Team. Never a bad choice. The Pick: New England (-4) v. San Diego.
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Pickin' & Grinnin': Week One

We're a little behind here at HoG World Headquarters this weekend. After a full buffet of fantasy drafts, golf tournaments and several hundred Pabst Blue Ribbons, we're finally settled and ready for the opening kick. So here's an abbreviated version of the weekly wagering "suggestions," followed by my sure-to-be-awful season prognostications.

I hate betting the Broncos, it's just a no-win situation. But if I were impartial, I'd take the Bills +3 1/2. It just feels like a two- or three-point game to me. I have no moral qualms, however, in betting an O/U involving my team. The Pick: Den/Buf UNDER (37 1/2)

The other half of The Tradition, the Kansas City Chiefs, is in Houston today. The news is out that KC is going to be awful this year, as Vegas has installed a fucking playoff team from last year as a three-point dog. To a team that's never made the postseason, a team that starts a green QB. And here's the big shocker, Houston will cover easily. The Pick: Texans (-3)

The other Missouri team is at home against the Panthers, and I'm taking the Rams. It's not so much that St. Louis is much good, but more that Carolina is a joke. The Pick: Rams (-2 1/2)

Yesterday I said in my pregame exchange with that San Diego was going to win the Super Bowl. I slept on it, and when I woke up I realized that was fucking stupid. Have you seen the Chargers' schedule? Other than the two games against the Chiefs, it's insane. Before they even get to the matchup with New England next week, they have to face the NFC champs today. The Pick: Chicago (+7)

I know it's Week One, and there are always surprises and shenanigans here, but let's be serious. The Oakland Raiders are favored to win a football game. The Pick: Lions (+3)

I really wanted to take the Jets in a division game getting seven, but instead I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys. I have a feeling about this team, and I think they, not the Chargers, are going to overcome their shitty coach and make the Super Bowl. The Pick: Cowboys (-6 1/2)

And one more thing...I think the Colts are going to cover the spread against the Saints, comfortably even. I'll make that my lock of the week.

SEASON PREDICTIONS

AFC West: San Diego, with yet another early playoff exit.
AFC East: New England, setting up another epic showdown with the Colts.
AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Indianapolis

AFC Wild Cards: Denver and Houston. Yes, Houston.

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC West: Seattle

NFC Wild Cards: New Orleans and Philadelphia

Super Bowl: Indianapolis over Dallas

MVP: Tom Brady

Denver Broncos: 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs: 5-11
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