Pickin' & Grinnin': Week One

We're a little behind here at HoG World Headquarters this weekend. After a full buffet of fantasy drafts, golf tournaments and several hundred Pabst Blue Ribbons, we're finally settled and ready for the opening kick. So here's an abbreviated version of the weekly wagering "suggestions," followed by my sure-to-be-awful season prognostications.

I hate betting the Broncos, it's just a no-win situation. But if I were impartial, I'd take the Bills +3 1/2. It just feels like a two- or three-point game to me. I have no moral qualms, however, in betting an O/U involving my team. The Pick: Den/Buf UNDER (37 1/2)

The other half of The Tradition, the Kansas City Chiefs, is in Houston today. The news is out that KC is going to be awful this year, as Vegas has installed a fucking playoff team from last year as a three-point dog. To a team that's never made the postseason, a team that starts a green QB. And here's the big shocker, Houston will cover easily. The Pick: Texans (-3)

The other Missouri team is at home against the Panthers, and I'm taking the Rams. It's not so much that St. Louis is much good, but more that Carolina is a joke. The Pick: Rams (-2 1/2)

Yesterday I said in my pregame exchange with that San Diego was going to win the Super Bowl. I slept on it, and when I woke up I realized that was fucking stupid. Have you seen the Chargers' schedule? Other than the two games against the Chiefs, it's insane. Before they even get to the matchup with New England next week, they have to face the NFC champs today. The Pick: Chicago (+7)

I know it's Week One, and there are always surprises and shenanigans here, but let's be serious. The Oakland Raiders are favored to win a football game. The Pick: Lions (+3)

I really wanted to take the Jets in a division game getting seven, but instead I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys. I have a feeling about this team, and I think they, not the Chargers, are going to overcome their shitty coach and make the Super Bowl. The Pick: Cowboys (-6 1/2)

And one more thing...I think the Colts are going to cover the spread against the Saints, comfortably even. I'll make that my lock of the week.

SEASON PREDICTIONS

AFC West: San Diego, with yet another early playoff exit.
AFC East: New England, setting up another epic showdown with the Colts.
AFC North: Cincinnati
AFC South: Indianapolis

AFC Wild Cards: Denver and Houston. Yes, Houston.

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC West: Seattle

NFC Wild Cards: New Orleans and Philadelphia

Super Bowl: Indianapolis over Dallas

MVP: Tom Brady

Denver Broncos: 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs: 5-11