Saturday, September 29, 2007

Pickin' & Grinnin': Week Four

Check this place out. The House of...Georges? That's a funny name. Don't know what it means, but it's pretty comfortable. I think I'll stick around for a minute or two, take off my sneakers, and make a few wagers. Ya mind?

Everyone's making a big fuss over the number of home dogs this week, and it is fairly extraordinary. I will go ahead and pick none of them, just to be a contrarian. Last week we went 3-2 again in this space, running the season to date total to a respectable yet hardly dominant 10-6.

The biggest pickle we face is that our two underrated gambling sweethearts, the Texans and the Falcons, face off against one another. In this case Atlanta gets dissed (as a four-point home dog) while Houston earns the proper amount of respect. It may be time to hop off that train.

Dallas is getting a lot of love following their big win in Chicago, and they're massive 14-point faves. What's underestimated here is the level of awful that St. Louis is achieving. It's staggering. The Pick: Cowboys -14

Elsewhere in bad Missouri football, the Chiefs travel to San Diego, who's yet to get it going. Let's do the math: Team that can't score faces good defense. Team with the biggest home field advantage in football hits the road. Angry steroid-fueled men itching to dance like young girls. Add it all up, and even Norv can't fuck this one up. The Pick: Chargers -11 1/2

On Monday Night, New England takes its freak show of destruction to Cincinnati. This line has moved quite a piece and now sits at 7 1/2, but fuck it. The Pick: Patriots -7 1/2

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that Arizona was going to upset Pittsburgh this week I'd bet it all on the Steelers and be rich. Listen, I buy the logic that Russ Grimm and The Whizz know a lot about their old employers. I understand the motivation present in wanting to beat the team that passed you over. But I don't care how many tendencies you uncover, who in the hell is going to execute the game plan? This is still the Cardinals, a rickety NFC club, playing what looks like an elite AFC unit. Tendencies my ass. The Pick: Steelers -7

Four picks, four huge favorites. This is not the insight that loyal readers of the HoG pay zero dollars for. We want our underdogs, asshole! Give us an upset we can take to the bank! Fine. Bet the Broncos. I know they can't stop the run, and I know Peyton typically shreds them for a quarter mile of passing yards per game. I know taking a young QB like Cutler in a dome, on the road, against a fast opportunistic defense like Indy's is virtual suicide. I also know that Indiana is one of the few states in which Travis Henry has not procreated, so he may be up late tonight and sleepy and sore tomorrow. But fuck it. That's way too many points, and I've got a feeling the Shanahan's club shows up for this game. They'll lose by nine, ten tops. The Pick: Broncos + 10 1/2